This week we focused on continuing our research as proposed from our last meeting.
Blog posts
The US is opposed to the pipeline because Trump views LNG exports as an important pathway to reduce trade deficits (and energy exports positively affect his base), and due to concerns over growing Russian influence in the region, particularly given that the US is the largest NATO member. However, at this time they have not taken concrete steps, and threats of sanctions have not been followed through with.
EU Energy And Natural Gas Strategies & EU Position Towards Nord Stream 2
Nord Stream 2 “is a project with neither economic rationale nor political backing” from an EU policy perspective. Since only half of the available gas import capacities in the EU were used in 2015, Nord Stream 2 will most probably lead to stranded assets. Furthermore, the pipeline conflicts with EU gas diversification strategies, efforts for a fully integrated and jointly regulated Energy Union, and supply security strategies due to the resulting increase of EU dependence on Russian gas and a further concentration of supply through the Baltic corridor. Nord Stream 2 challenges the coherence of EU foreign policy towards Russia and Ukraine, as well as the solidarity between member states with regard to the coordination of energy policies.EU efforts to obtain a negotiation mandate for the operation of the pipeline were not successful. The proposed amendment of the EU Gas Directive has initially aimed to extend the scope of the directive to external pipelines, such as Nord Stream 2, without exception. However, this has only been partially successful and the currently discussed amendment will most likely not be sufficient for enforcing EU interests, since Germany might be allowed to grant an exception for Nord Stream 2
Baltic Perspectives on Nord Stream 2
All Baltic countries oppose the construction of the NS2 project, due to distrust of Russia on the grounds of national and energy security, as well as wanting to diversify their energy supply.
Slovenia, Romania, and Ukraine all oppose the Nord Stream 2 Project. Slovenia has stated that the Project diverges from EU’s principles on energy, hinders the gas market and divide the region. Romania states that it will lead to further dependency on Russia. Currently, Ukraine’s energy sector faces several critical issues and without the current pipelines, Ukraine will lose a significant portion of its GDP, and it may also intensify security issues.
The UK is opposed to the pipeline from a security perspective, and a desire to support Ukraine. They have voiced this publicly, though tactfully (given the context of Brexit and fear of alienating Germany). In terms of energy strategy, the UK’s energy mix is fairly diversified, and they rely very little on Russian imports, though that amount will likely increase over coming years in the form of gas imports through continental Europe, which will likely include Russian sources.
Reasons behind the support of Germany, Austria and the Netherlands for Nord Stream 2
Supporting countries are Germany, Austria and the Netherlands. First of all it is important to recognize that for this group of countries NS2 is rather an economic issue than a foreign policy or security policy issue. Or in other words economic arguments predominate foreign policy or security arguments. In the particular case of Germany also the strong support of the Social Democratic Party plays an important role for supporting NS2.
Next steps
- Finalize all background research before meeting on Wednesday
- Review contributions from others
- Review all the recently posted materials/articles.
We will meet on Wednesday to determine the next phase of the project.
Nord Stream 2 Project: A clash of energy security, market & geostrategy in Europe 