Slovenia, Romania, and Ukraine all oppose the Nord Stream 2 Project. Slovenia has stated that the Project diverges from EU’s principles on energy, hinders the gas market and divide the region. Romania states that it will lead to further dependency on Russia. Currently, Ukraine’s energy sector faces several critical issues and without the current pipelines, Ukraine will lose a significant portion of its GDP, and it may also intensify security issues.
In 2016, Presidents of Lithuania and Slovenia stated that NS2
- goes against the “principles of EU’s energy union”
- endangers “fair competition in the European gas market”
- allows Gazprom to separate EU states
Instead, it welcomes building an LNG terminal in Croatia to secure energy supply and diversify gas suppliers.
Romania opposes NS2 in fear that the EU will increase its dependency on Russia.
An analyst estimates that the volume of Russian gas can decrease to less than half from its current state (80 billion cubic meters to 30 bcm). Fees will decline from $2.5bn to $1bn annually.
In 2017, almost 50 percent Russian gas to Europe was transited through Ukraine (93 bcm out of 193 bcm). The transit fees make for 3 percent of Ukraine’s GDP (about $2-3 billion annually). Ukraine has been reliant on Russia’s gas as its energy sector faces issues such as: decreasing natural gas prices, untrained workers, older infrastructure, strict management, absent competition in pricing and lack of variety in energy resources in addition to corruption and devaluation of the currency. Ukraine has constructed itself as a gas hub where it also imports from other EU states. Domestically, gas consumption has declined, on the other hand, production has grown in the last 20 years. The transit agreement that was once critical for both ends, providing a safe transfer route is to end on January 1st, 2020. Germany’s chancellor Angela Merkel has reassured that NS2 will not proceed without Russia’s guarantee that it will not stop Ukraine’s transit course. Forbes journalist states that Ukraine must construct a transparent and competitive gas market that does not depend on Russia.
The reduction in the importance of Ukraine’s trasit can also affect its security from Russia.
In July 2018, Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko stated that NS2 was political rather than an commerical project. He warned that it will increase Europe’s dependency on Russia entailing energy security issues and hinder competition in the EU. President Poroshenko agrees with President Trump’s views of Germany being ‘captivated’ by Russia.
In August 2018, President Poroshenko has expressed to other EU states to cancel NS2 as it is a gateway for Russia into the European energy system and is a risk to security.